For Democrats, the struggle will be to get the GOP below the magic number, 26, to keep the House from declaring Trump the winner, which it might not hesitate to do even if a Democratic presidential candidate wins a clear majority of popular votes and, state machinations aside, an apparent majority of electoral votes.
But if the GOP no longer controls the delegations of 26 states and the Democrats do not pick up the four they need to get to 26, the House could conceivably deadlock. What happens then? The Senate would choose a vice president by a simple majority vote. So for Democrats, taking back the Senate is a task that gains new urgency.
It will be a tough battle, despite the fact that 22 Republican seats, and just 12 Democratic seats, are at stake.
To pull it off, Democrats will need to keep their own vulnerable seats, in West Virginia and Alabama the former made tougher if Joe Manchin leaves; the latter made easier if Roy Moore is the Republican nominee.
Democrats, who need a net pickup of four seats, would do well to persuade the presidential candidates John Hickenlooper and Steve Bullock to instead run for the Senate, and to intervene in other states to back the strongest possible nominees.
If Republicans keep their Senate majority, or if the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote, the Republican vice-presidential nominee would be confirmed, be sworn in on January 20, and, under the Presidential Succession Act, become acting president—until the House could actually settle on a presidential victor.
Scholars have contemplated these kinds of fanciful scenarios in the past, although not since the 19th century has the House resolved a presidential election. A simple majority of states, equivalent to 26 votes or more, would be needed to win.
The remaining Electoral College votes leave several routes for either candidate to win the election — but is there still the possibility of a tie? Follow the US election results live - latest updates on swing state results.
If Mr Biden wins Nevada, which was won by then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in , then together with his gains in Michigan and Wisconsin he would end up with the votes. These combined votes, together with Alaska, would put the current President at votes following his victories in the populous states of Florida and Texas, though it would be a much narrower victory than his votes in The election is taking place in significantly different circumstances than four years ago due to the Covid pandemic, with millions voting early or via post.
It is feared that some states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, may not report full results for potentially days. The situation is further complicated because even if one candidate wins votes, their path to the White House could still face problems. While many states have laws requiring electors in the Electoral College to vote in the way that corresponds with the popular vote of the state, others can vote contrary to the public's decision.
A bitterly divided House of Representatives deadlocked 36 times before it finally picked Thomas Jefferson as the winner of the election, and in the process laid bare a host of problems with the Electoral College that could only be fixed with a constitutional amendment.
Almost immediately, the existence of warring political parties created headaches for the Electoral College system. In the first four U. The candidate who won the majority of Electoral College votes was the president and the second-place finisher was the vice president. The tie election made an even stronger case that the Electoral College needed to be fixed.
Map illustrates votes by state, in the U. Meanwhile, the Federalist candidate, incumbent John Adams, only received 65 votes. According to the Constitution, an electoral tie goes to the House of Representatives, where each state casts one ballot to pick a winner from among the two tied candidates.
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